This year our football program has been devoted to achieving Terry Hoeppner’s goal of “playing thirteen.” At 5-2, our Hoosiers will have their second chance at reaching this objective this Saturday against the Penn State Nittany Lions (5-2). This Homecoming game could prove to be the biggest challenge we have faced thus far.
Penn State has built a substantial amount of momentum over the past 2 weeks, with convincing wins over Iowa and Wisconsin. They last lost 27-20 two weeks ago to Illinois, only a week after the Illini handed us our first loss
The Hoosiers are coming off a loss to the Michigan State Spartans that was both emotionally and physically devastating for our team. However, the Nittany Lions will have to prove that they can win a game that isn’t in Beaver Stadium, one that will include a raucous Homecoming crowd. This seemed to factor into their losses to Michigan and Illinois.
On offense, the Hoosiers will face a staunch Penn State defense that is ranked seventh in the nation, allowing only 264.3 yards a game. Despite the opening score in their game against Michigan State, the Hoosiers struggled to move the ball offensively in a consistent manner. We will need big games from Kellen Lewis and James Hardy if we expect to put up the points necessary to win the game.
Penn State is second in the nation in sacks (behind your Hoosiers), so Kellen can count on consistent pressure in the pocket. He will need to be extremely mobile and make plays with his feet to slow down the opposing pass rush, which includes defensive end Maurice Evans (7 sacks).
Hardy will have to contend with Penn State cornerback, who has already matched up well with receivers like Michigan’s Mario Manningham.
Bryan Payton and Marcus Thigpen will be challenged in the running game by star middle linebacker Dan Connor, who is already threatening 2007 NFL first round draft pick Paul Posluszny’s records.
Penn State’s defense matches up well with our offensive weapons, but if we get creative with our play calling and execute without committing turnovers, Kellen Lewis and James Hardy could definitely turn this into a shootout.
On defense, we need our defensive line to continue its success in rushing the quarterback. If our offense can build a lead early, we will almost certainly be able to capitalize on turnovers from a Penn State offense that depends on big plays. If we can put them into a conservative stance and force them to march methodically down the field, we have a much better chance of outscoring them.
We will also need to perform much better against the running game. Penn State’s rushing attack is in no way a weak point of their offense. Starting Penn State tailback Rodney Kinlaw rushed for 115 yards and a touchdown against Wisconsin, and 168 yards against Iowa. Indiana will need to show a lot of improvement over its Michigan State disaster to slow down Penn State’s offense, especially with the increased big play threat of the passing game.
While we definitely have the potential to win this game over Penn State, it will take a great game plan and great execution to make it happen. Penn State has a talented and balanced team that matches up well with our strengths.
The Homecoming crowd will support the Hoosiers to the end, but I don’t see us overcoming the talent of this Penn State team.
We will keep it close for three quarters, but in the end Penn State’s running game will prove too physical for our defense. This will be a high-scoring game (the series average is over 60 points combined per game), with a lot of lead changes.
My prediction (For once I hope it’s wrong!): 42-28 Penn State.
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